The Miami Marlins record at the halfway mark of the 2023 season is 47-34, which is second in team history to the 1997 World Series champion Florida Marlins, who were 48-33 at the same point. How has this happened? What might we expect going forward?
First, it’s time to note the successful moves made by General Manager Kim Ng, who is rightly receiving congratulatory plaudits on Marlins social media for helping to steer the team in a better direction post-Jeter. The first big decision of the 2022 offseason, arguably the first full offseason where Ng has had the most authority to guide the team in a different direction, was the hiring of Skip Schumaker as the new Marlins manager. According to several Marlins players interviewed, from Garrett Cooper (“this coaching staff is better than what we’ve had”), to Jazz Chisholm to Sandy Alcantara, the clubhouse culture has never been better. Of course, clubhouse “culture” and “chemistry” are so readily used as catch-alls for team success that it is rather meaningless by itself. Did winning change the culture? Did the culture change lead to winning? These debates are by definition circular and therefore impossible to resolve.
What we do know is that the new manager and coaching staff have worked with the Marlins analytics department and front office to successfully address at least two problems identified from the failures of 2022: hitters with high strikeouts/lack of contact and poor infield positioning that allowed hits to get through. These were areas that Kim Ng and her front office prioritized in the offseason. The hiring of a hitting coach, Brant Brown, who preached bat to ball skills and contact rate, coincided with a player acquisition strategy of acquiring high contact hitters. The trade for Luis Arraez is the high-water mark of this approach, successful beyond anyone’s expectations thus far, as Arraez has been around a .400 batting average all year with contact rates that make him a unicorn among contemporary players–he’s more Tony Gwynn and Rod Carew than anyone playing in today’s game. He also has a wRC+ of 158–second in the National League to Ronald Acuna Jr.–in runs created above league average, weighted by type of hit and for league context. Ng’s trade for Arraez has been pivotal to this team’s success, both in the stellar half-season provided by Arraez and by the example he has set for other players. Several Marlins players have noted his influence on their approach to hitting for more contact, especially with two strikes, and taking the ball the other way. Jesus Sanchez turned his season around, and is at his best, when he hits the ball to the opposite fielf. Even Jorge Soler has been a making better contact his year, which has also helped him optimize his power stroke. He and Arraez have been a killer one-two combo in the Marlins lineup. Garrett Cooper credits new hitting coach Brant Brown with helping him find more consistency in hitting the ball up the middle with authority. Bryan de la Cruz and Sanchez have worked extensively with Brant Brown in shortening their strokes to generate more hard contact the other way, especially with two strikes.
So when we talk about “culture,” it’s more meaningful to talk about whether or not players are “buying in” to what the new manager and coaching staff are selling. We have lots of evidence that they are. The Marlins were 26th of 30 teams in contact percentage in 2022. They are 9th in contact percentage in 2023. This year’s Marlins are 13th in on-base percentage; last year’s version was 27th. This adds up to a Marlins team that is average offensively (they still rank lower in power production), compared to a bottom five offense in 2022. Still not a great offensive team, but one that has advanced considerably in key areas of run production, which in tandem with outstanding pitching–among the league leaders in a range of the most important statistical categories despite a subpar Sandy Alcantara–has allowed the team to win close games and to hold other teams in check. The ongoing presence of major league pitching coach Mel Stottlemyre, combined with a strong pitching development and acquisition system, continues to produce results. Most notably the latest young phenom, Eury Perez, whose numbers are mind-boggling across the board, accomplishing what no 20 year old pitcher has ever done: specifically becoming the youngest pitcher since 1901 with 3 straight scoreless outings of 6+ innings (courtesy of the great Sarah Langs). Braxton Garrett has been the season’s surpising rotation anchor with command of five pitches he can throw for strikes at any point in the count–slider, sinker, cutter, curveball, and changeup–to carve up hitters without the high-end stuff of his rotation counterparts. Jesus Luzardo has been solid and at times he can blow opposing teams away with his upper-tier velocity and spin. The rotation has produced beyond the sum of its parts, and despite injuries to Trevor Rogers and Edward Cabrera. This becomes evident when looking at how the Marlins rank on six of the sabermetric stats posted by Fangraphs: top five in WAR, FIP, xFIP, SIERA, K%, K-BB%.
The other area where the new manager and coaching staff have outperformed last year’s version is infield positioning. Despite the infield shift restrictions, there are still advantages to positioning your infielders optimally. No one does that better than the Marlins analytical and coaching staffs, who have worked together to give the team the most runs saved in MLB as of June 29: 18 runs saved on the season (see Sports Info Solutions, “Reeling Them In–Marlins Infield Positioning Working Well,” by Mark Simon, June 29, 2023).
Can the Marlins keep us this pace? In terms of qualifying for the playoffs, the odds are decidedly in the team’s favor now, as Fangraphs and other sites estimate their playoff chances to be in the 60% range. Still, the club does not have much room for error or injury: the hitting is league average; the pitching is doing very well despite injuries and subperformance from Alcantara, who has looked much better of late. The team needs a healthy and productive Jazz and a consistent return to form from last year’s Cy Young winner. They also need to add a couple of pieces of quality big league production–ideally on the left side of the infield, at catcher and a veteran arm they can add to the back end of the rotation and/or bullpen. The front office has proven they can deal–and more chips need to be traded prior to the deadline if the team continues its playoff pace.
GO FISH!
View From Left Field 