Tag: writing

The Miami Marlins Have Accelerated Their Build

The combination of hyper winning streaks and losing spirals in 2026 have made the Miami Marlins a puzzle to quite a few diehard fans. Some want to place most of the blame (and very little credit) toward the front office and especially the manager and coaching staff for failing to send the team to the playoffs in 2026. This is simplistic and misleading for several reasons. First, the team, despite the long 12-game losing streak that followed a month and a half of playing the best baseball in the league, has still blown by expectations.

Preseason predictions from every baseball site had the Marlins projected to have a win total in the upper 60s to the lower 70s. The team has already surpassed those expected numbers, in just the second season of a big league roster fully comprising the choices of the new front office. Second, the team was only in a position to achieve this because of the players the front office acquired and because of the success of player development by the front office and the big league coaching staff. In many ways the perception of the team has been altered because 0f the rapid success of a very quick rebuild. Fans expect more because of the enticing potential of an already accelerated timeline.

The time f0r playoff contention is coming soon, perhaps as soon as 2027. Every baseball site, except strangely Baseball America, has ranked the Marlins a top ten farm system and is predicting a “new wave of prospect arrivals to the big leagues in 2027,” in the words of prospect analyst Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. In other words, the Fish are already a .500 big league team in the very early stages of a build, and are entering an expected phase of a wave of more major league talent coming, courtesy of the front office adding t0 the prospect depth in the minors, just a couple of years after having torn down and restructured the organization at every level.

Acquiring players discarded by other teams and turning those players into valuable contributors to the big league club, such as Otto Lopez and Heriberto Hernandez, has epitomized the front office success with player development. The fact that two minor league affiliates, AA Pensacola and low A Jupiter, made the minor league playoffs is indicative of successful player development at varied levels of the organization. This will pay dividends later at the major league level. As a result of turning around an awful player development system of the previous failed Jeter regime, this new front office deserves a lot of credit. Their player development approach is consistently applied at every level of the system—something that the Marlins have never had, and is moving in the direction of being among the best player development systems in the sport. While not yet reaching the level of the Rays, Brewers, Guardians, etc. the Marlins are moving toward that tier (and fast). Grade: A-.

I give the quality of the minor league prospects a slightly lower grade so far, only because the depth of good to very good players has yet to translate into superstar potential. The Marlins have ample depth in a range 0f positions and in pitching, but they don’t appear to have the upper end talent of the organizations that are leading the pack, including Milwaukee, Tampa, Cleveland, which are the realistic comps of where the organization wants to be. They also have had several key injuries to their top position player prospects, which especially hurt their rankings with Baseball America. Grade: B+.

The draft picks over the past two seasons have been solid if not spectacular. More time is needed to fully evaluate the front office here, but right now the club does not have many quick risers among their recent draft picks, with the exception of CF Cam Cannarella, who has moved fast to AAA after being drafted in 2025, and exceeded expectations at every level, poised to contribute in 2027. Early indications are that the 2025 and 2026 drafts were more successful than the 2024 draft, so we will see. Grade: B.

The front office has used extensive trades to replenish the minor league system. The best indication of making quite a few quality trades is the fact that 6 of the Marlins top 30 prospects were acquired in trades, according to Fish on First, including 4 of the top 10. While fair critiques could be made of the lack of adequate returns in some trades, emphasizing quantity of players acquired instead of potentially high-impact players, the overall picture appears very positive. Remember the farm system was near dead last under Jeter, typically ahead of only the Angels. Now it’s a top ten system, according to most publications, and that in part is due to trades. Grade: B.

The huge elephant in the room according to many fans is the ineptness of the manager and coaching staff in making in-game decisions. I’ve seen plenty of ridiculous fan posts accusing manager Clayton McCullough of being responsible for 10 or more losses due to everything from lineup construction to starting pitcher and bullpen management. These are absurd critiques that exaggerate the significance of lineups. Study after study has shown that lineup construction accounts for a very small differential in runs produced over a course of a season, with poor lineups reducing runs scored over an entire year by anywhere from 11-15 runs at the most. But even if you want to play the psychological guessing game of suggesting that players need regular ABs in predictable and repeatable situations, this does not hold up to statistical scrutiny. Most teams experiment with lineups a lot, especially those that want to maximize player matchups early and late in games. The Marlins have had extended periods of success with this, along with periods where players slumped. There is no smoking gun here to indicate that the lineup shifts are contributing to underperformance.

The area where the critiques make some sense is with early hooks for starters such as Ryan Gusto, Jansen Junk and Tyler Phillips. Mostly, I’ve been in favor of early hooks for these pitchers, except down the stretch, when the Marlins clearly had a weaker bullpen than they had most of the season, due mainly to key injuries, McCullough and the coaching staff would still pull these lower rotation starters ridiculously early, to the point of a paint-by-numbers statistical game which defied the eye test and common sense. Fans were right to be frustrated here. Do I think it cost the team a lot of wins? Most certainly not, but I think it was an issue. Grade for in-game management: C.

The weakest grade goes for the front office free agent choices, which have been an arsonist delight of early flame outs, pointless choices and wasted at bats and innings. The fact that the track record is so abysmal here is rather obvious: failure across the board over the last two years of playing in the low-end free agent market, which to be sure, helps predict negative outcomes. When you don’t spend much, you tend not to get much. No one should have been surprised when Christopher Morel failed or when Chris Paddock failed. I was surprised when the highest paid free agent, closer Pete Fairbanks, failed. I thought that was a good acquisition, but it was not. At least the team did not spend much money on these signings, collectively, but they were bad and they need to get better. Grade: D-.

Overall the direction is quite good and positive. The good news is the this new front office does seem very adaptable and self-critical. They are willing to experiment and also willing to change course. I look forward to giving them more A’s across the board when they start posting 90+ win seasons year after year, which Bendix announced as his goal. Speaking of Bendix, I do wish he had more clarity with the media and with the fans. I respect his baseball IQ a lot, but fans need a bit more than the same sound bites over and over. He could learn from veteran President of Baseball Ops Dave Dombrowski, who manages to provide detailed info to fans that is informative without giving away too much. It’s evident that the front office did not feel that 2026 was their year, and to me it made sense to basically stand pat at the deadline and to even trade a valuable hitter such as Liam Hicks in an area of some depth to acquire more talent for years ahead. A front office exec can be honest that building a foundation is an ongoing process and that the club is not exactly where they want it to be yet. That’s okay, and it doesn’t give away too much to try to say it. Overall grade: B.

Marlins Spiral Away from Playoff Contention

After having played great baseball for a month and a half, the Miami Marlins have reversed course to drop a team record 12 straight games, shifting their record from ten games over .500 to two games under. The turn of events is a surprise to just about everyone following the team, but in my mind does not negate the overall positives of the 2026 season. Even with a 52-54 record, the Marlins have demonstrated the growth of a core group of players who are keys to future success. At the same time, the team is still not out of the race, though the odds have dropped dramatically, which is a shame considering the momentum built.

First, the positives: the middle infield of Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards remains elite, despite Edwards’ recent struggles, his underlying numbers look very solid and projectable. Kyle Stowers could be a fixture at 1B, but also could be a trade chip if Bendix gets the right offer to fortify the future at key positions of need, but it would take a very strong offer. Joe Mack has cemented his position as catcher of the present and the future. LF Heriberto Hernandez has become one of the better hitters in baseball the past couple of months and RF Griffin Conine has played exceptionally well on both offense and defense, earning more playing time against lefties. Javier Sanoja remains a very versatile and valuable utility man. The anchors of the starting rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, are not going anywhere.

The negatives: the holes on this team are a lack of production in CF, where Jakob Marsee has struggled ever since putting up great numbers his first month of his career in late 2025. There is also a glaring hole at 3B, which could eventually be filled by upcoming prospect Aiva Arquette or by moving Otto Lopez to 3B when premium SS prospect Starlyn Caba gets the call-up. However this is an area the team will likely want to address sooner with a proven major leaguer. There is also a lack of depth on the bench and too much reliance on pet projects that are not adequate for giving the Marlins more offensive firepower, such as Leo Jimenez, though OF Esteury Ruiz has been a pleasant surprise. Liam Hicks was a great rule V draft pick, but lacks the consistent power and catching skills necessary to make him a versatile and valuable backup, besides being left handed, which the team is too top-heavy with.

There is lack of depth in the starting rotation and the front office has been late in addressing what was apparent early on. The injury to all-star starter Max Meyer has contributed to the crisis here. This needs to be addressed through a combination of trades, free agent signings and the eventual arrival of young pitching depth from the minors, which the Marlins player development system will help with. The bullpen statistically was one of the best, but has had too many implosions and key pitchers are fading. This is not just a Marlins issue but an issue connected with all bullpens: they are erratic and volatile by nature. Here the President of Baseball Operations, Peter Bendix, has proven skillful in remaking the pen on the cheap, something he will need to fortify the way he has in the past. That means selective waiver acquisitions and trades as well as relying on player development to deliver the next batch of quality arms.

What is happening now tends to feed on itself psychologically. This is the area I worry most about with the managerial and coaching leadership. Are they willing to loosen the rigid adherence to platooning players to get their best performers more at bats? And to shake up the lineup so that the hot hands are rewarded? Overall I like the manager and the coaching staff but more of these loses makes it a difficult environment to justify staying the course with the same leadership. Hopefully the team turns it around, especially since a big part of the problem is a collective offensive slump, exacerbated no doubt by trying too hard to do too much, which then makes it worse.

The good news is there continues to be strong player development is the minors, led by the emergence of the best prospect the Marlins have had in a while: CF Cam Cannarella, whose offensive numbers have skyrocketed this season after being drafted in 2025. Likewise, SS prospect Starlyn Caba, already stellar defensively, has seen significant growth in offensive production this year. Those are two players who could be strong fixtures of future Marlins major league rosters. First round draft pick from 2025, Aiva Arquette, could move fast toward the majors, given his progress so far, and could eventually slot in at either SS or 3B, depending on the mix of talent on future Marlins big league rosters. However his progress has been stalled by several minor injuries that have periodically landed him on the injured list.

But this slump remains tough to take for the timing, with fans having clearly renewed interest in going in larger numbers to the games. Laura Leigh and I celebrated our final year in Miami and our 33rd wedding anniversary by inviting a group of 18 friends to share a luxury box with us on July 10. We had a great time, even with the loss to Cleveland. The problem is the Marlins have not won a game since!

Owner Bruce Sherman brought in Peter Bendix to lead the team, which remains a great choice. The turnaround from the pre-Bendix era has been overwhelmingly positive and the owner is fully committed to the new leadership. That has not changed. The Fish are in fact “for real” despite the losing streak. The future is bright. Let’s turn it around soon. Go Fish!


The Miami Marlins at Mid-Season in 2026

When the new front office under Peter Bendix was brought in to start the 2024 season, I expected positive results from a complete overhaul of the minor league and major league system. Now with just two and a half years behind them, it is fair to say that this front office has exceeded my expectations. Starting as early as 2025, just a year after a complete overhaul of the player development system, extensive trades, new player acquisitions, and new rosters at every level of the organization, the Bendix team was able to both “rebuild” and compete at the same time. How many rebuilds allow a team to compete for a wild card so early? Typically, rebuilds are a 4-5 year process before a team is competitive enough to make a playoff spot or even compete for a playoff spot. Not in this case.

What is most impressive about this current run of 13-4, the best record in Major League Baseball in June, is that the streak is happening with only two full-time starting pitchers healthy, Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer, with Alcantara being solid but not great and Meyer becoming the recent “ace” of the staff. The rest of the starting rotation has been bullpen by committee or relying on former reliever Tyler Phillips and minor league option Ryan Gusto to provide some additional innings. Despite that, the team has excelled in large part due to outstanding work from a bullpen whose early struggles centered around walking too many hitters, despite displaying consistently good metrics in other areas. The walks have come down, performances have improved from Anthony Bender, who has been stellar, as well as Michael Peterson, Calvin Faucher and free agent acquisition Pete Fairbanks, who is starting to pitch like the closer they thought they were getting in the offseason.

The offense has been sparked by the remarkable tandem of SS Otto Lopez, a career year so far at the plate, and 2B Xavier Edwards, who has shown rare extra base power early in the year. A case can be made that this is the best middle infield in the game, with Lopez being one of the earliest waiver wire pickups by Bendix and Xavier Edwards acquired as a former minor leaguer in the Tampa Rays system before Bendix took over. Liam Hicks, a rule 5 draft pick, is also surging with the best numbers of his career, posting both great contact numbers and newfound power—he worked extensively with the coaching staff in the offseason to generate more lift and bat speed from his swing.

This type of player development simply did not happen under previous Marlins regimes, but now it is quite common. Another player who has excelled with the Marlins, but not with his previous teams, is Esteury Ruiz, who was acquired in an offseason trade that I was skeptical of, but once again this new regime has found a way to help Ruiz display power that has never been part of his game until now. Couple that with the emergence of top prospect C Joe Mack, whose stellar defense has altered game momentum and whose bat has been very good in June, and you have an emerging core of up-the-middle talent for the Fish. Jakob Marsee has clearly been an exception in that his offensive numbers have seen a decline, but even there the underlying metrics of contact rate, hard hit rate, and on-base ability suggest that his fortune will turn. He also provides stellar defense in CF to compensate for struggles at the plate. If Kyle Stowers can show more consistency of approach and more power, then this offense could take off. Offseason prospect acquisition OF Owen Caissie has also started to show more consistency, and the power potential is very real.

So how good is this team? Right now the underlying numbers are in line with a .500 winning percentage, so their record is essentially what it should be. But they could be a little better than this, and will be getting a boost from the return of starter Eury Perez and outfielder Griffin Conine from the injured list probably this week. If things continue to go well and the team sticks around .500 or moves beyond, the front office will likely make modest additions at the trade deadline if not sooner, especially to acquire a starter. I would not expect major moves here, but also do not expect the team to sell, despite the obsession of some Marlins fans for acquiring more prospects regardless of how the team is performing. Bendix has been clear on this from day one: the goal is to both develop the system by continuing to add potential impact players to the minors while also trying to compete for a playoff spot in the majors. Fan thinking has not quite caught up to this, so too many have an either/or attitude that does not reflect how the organization sees things. Also, from a baseball culture standpoint, you don’t want to trade away valuable pieces mid-season when you have a chance to make the playoffs. It’s a slap in the face to the major league players, and the Bendix team gets that, which is why the team stood pat last year and stayed in the playoff race well into September.

More reasons to feel encouraged? The minor league system of player acquisition and development has taken huge steps forward under this new regime. At just about every level of the organization, the Marlins have improved in statistical rankings relative to where they were under the previous front office. They also have much greater balance of good players and potential major leaguers on both the hitting and pitching side. In other words, they have a deep system of useful players, some of whom could be good to very good big leaguers. What they lack are high upside players, especially hitters. Their best hitters may not have enough production to put them in the elite category anytime soon. That, along with a lack of power, both at the majors and in the minors, is something the front office recognizes they will need to address.

There has been the typical chirping from Marlins fans on social media about how bad the manager and coaching staff are with the Marlins. Their record suggests a picture that is the opposite of this portrayal. One of the earliest attempts I’ve seen to measure how well a manager makes in-game bullpen and bench decisions suggests that Clayton McCullough has been one of the best managers in baseball at adding “win probability impact” with his decision making. True, this measurement greatly simplifies what a manager does but it also offers some evidence at the very least that much of the fan base is clueless when it comes to assessing decision-making, a point that I did not need a statistical evaluation to make. One of the things this statistical assessment does not include, but the new Marlins regime has excelled at: player development in the majors and the minors. The coaching staff throughout the Marlins system know what they are doing.

in the meantime, let’s enjoy this ride, Marlins fans! It’s close to mid-season and your fighting Fish are in the hunt.