Tag: sports

Marlins Spiral Away from Playoff Contention

After having played great baseball for a month and a half, the Miami Marlins have reversed course to drop a team record 12 straight games, shifting their record from ten games over .500 to two games under. The turn of events is a surprise to just about everyone following the team, but in my mind does not negate the overall positives of the 2026 season. Even with a 52-54 record, the Marlins have demonstrated the growth of a core group of players who are keys to future success. At the same time, the team is still not out of the race, though the odds have dropped dramatically, which is a shame considering the momentum built.

First, the positives: the middle infield of Otto Lopez and Xavier Edwards remains elite, despite Edwards’ recent struggles, his underlying numbers look very solid and projectable. Kyle Stowers could be a fixture at 1B, but also could be a trade chip if Bendix gets the right offer to fortify the future at key positions of need, but it would take a very strong offer. Joe Mack has cemented his position as catcher of the present and the future. LF Heriberto Hernandez has become one of the better hitters in baseball the past couple of months and RF Griffin Conine has played exceptionally well on both offense and defense, earning more playing time against lefties. Javier Sanoja remains a very versatile and valuable utility man. The anchors of the starting rotation, Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez, are not going anywhere.

The negatives: the holes on this team are a lack of production in CF, where Jakob Marsee has struggled ever since putting up great numbers his first month of his career in late 2025. There is also a glaring hole at 3B, which could eventually be filled by upcoming prospect Aiva Arquette or by moving Otto Lopez to 3B when premium SS prospect Starlyn Caba gets the call-up. However this is an area the team will likely want to address sooner with a proven major leaguer. There is also a lack of depth on the bench and too much reliance on pet projects that are not adequate for giving the Marlins more offensive firepower, such as Leo Jimenez, though OF Esteury Ruiz has been a pleasant surprise. Liam Hicks was a great rule V draft pick, but lacks the consistent power and catching skills necessary to make him a versatile and valuable backup, besides being left handed, which the team is too top-heavy with.

There is lack of depth in the starting rotation and the front office has been late in addressing what was apparent early on. The injury to all-star starter Max Meyer has contributed to the crisis here. This needs to be addressed through a combination of trades, free agent signings and the eventual arrival of young pitching depth from the minors, which the Marlins player development system will help with. The bullpen statistically was one of the best, but has had too many implosions and key pitchers are fading. This is not just a Marlins issue but an issue connected with all bullpens: they are erratic and volatile by nature. Here the President of Baseball Operations, Peter Bendix, has proven skillful in remaking the pen on the cheap, something he will need to fortify the way he has in the past. That means selective waiver acquisitions and trades as well as relying on player development to deliver the next batch of quality arms.

What is happening now tends to feed on itself psychologically. This is the area I worry most about with the managerial and coaching leadership. Are they willing to loosen the rigid adherence to platooning players to get their best performers more at bats? And to shake up the lineup so that the hot hands are rewarded? Overall I like the manager and the coaching staff but more of these loses makes it a difficult environment to justify staying the course with the same leadership. Hopefully the team turns it around, especially since a big part of the problem is a collective offensive slump, exacerbated no doubt by trying too hard to do too much, which then makes it worse.

The good news is there continues to be strong player development is the minors, led by the emergence of the best prospect the Marlins have had in a while: CF Cam Cannarella, whose offensive numbers have skyrocketed this season after being drafted in 2025. Likewise, SS prospect Starlyn Caba, already stellar defensively, has seen significant growth in offensive production this year. Those are two players who could be strong fixtures of future Marlins major league rosters. First round draft pick from 2025, Aiva Arquette, could move fast toward the majors, given his progress so far, and could eventually slot in at either SS or 3B, depending on the mix of talent on future Marlins big league rosters. However his progress has been stalled by several minor injuries that have periodically landed him on the injured list.

But this slump remains tough to take for the timing, with fans having clearly renewed interest in going in larger numbers to the games. Laura Leigh and I celebrated our final year in Miami and our 33rd wedding anniversary by inviting a group of 18 friends to share a luxury box with us on July 10. We had a great time, even with the loss to Cleveland. The problem is the Marlins have not won a game since!

Owner Bruce Sherman brought in Peter Bendix to lead the team, which remains a great choice. The turnaround from the pre-Bendix era has been overwhelmingly positive and the owner is fully committed to the new leadership. That has not changed. The Fish are in fact “for real” despite the losing streak. The future is bright. Let’s turn it around soon. Go Fish!


The Miami Marlins at Mid-Season in 2026

When the new front office under Peter Bendix was brought in to start the 2024 season, I expected positive results from a complete overhaul of the minor league and major league system. Now with just two and a half years behind them, it is fair to say that this front office has exceeded my expectations. Starting as early as 2025, just a year after a complete overhaul of the player development system, extensive trades, new player acquisitions, and new rosters at every level of the organization, the Bendix team was able to both “rebuild” and compete at the same time. How many rebuilds allow a team to compete for a wild card so early? Typically, rebuilds are a 4-5 year process before a team is competitive enough to make a playoff spot or even compete for a playoff spot. Not in this case.

What is most impressive about this current run of 13-4, the best record in Major League Baseball in June, is that the streak is happening with only two full-time starting pitchers healthy, Sandy Alcantara and Max Meyer, with Alcantara being solid but not great and Meyer becoming the recent “ace” of the staff. The rest of the starting rotation has been bullpen by committee or relying on former reliever Tyler Phillips and minor league option Ryan Gusto to provide some additional innings. Despite that, the team has excelled in large part due to outstanding work from a bullpen whose early struggles centered around walking too many hitters, despite displaying consistently good metrics in other areas. The walks have come down, performances have improved from Anthony Bender, who has been stellar, as well as Michael Peterson, Calvin Faucher and free agent acquisition Pete Fairbanks, who is starting to pitch like the closer they thought they were getting in the offseason.

The offense has been sparked by the remarkable tandem of SS Otto Lopez, a career year so far at the plate, and 2B Xavier Edwards, who has shown rare extra base power early in the year. A case can be made that this is the best middle infield in the game, with Lopez being one of the earliest waiver wire pickups by Bendix and Xavier Edwards acquired as a former minor leaguer in the Tampa Rays system before Bendix took over. Liam Hicks, a rule 5 draft pick, is also surging with the best numbers of his career, posting both great contact numbers and newfound power—he worked extensively with the coaching staff in the offseason to generate more lift and bat speed from his swing.

This type of player development simply did not happen under previous Marlins regimes, but now it is quite common. Another player who has excelled with the Marlins, but not with his previous teams, is Esteury Ruiz, who was acquired in an offseason trade that I was skeptical of, but once again this new regime has found a way to help Ruiz display power that has never been part of his game until now. Couple that with the emergence of top prospect C Joe Mack, whose stellar defense has altered game momentum and whose bat has been very good in June, and you have an emerging core of up-the-middle talent for the Fish. Jakob Marsee has clearly been an exception in that his offensive numbers have seen a decline, but even there the underlying metrics of contact rate, hard hit rate, and on-base ability suggest that his fortune will turn. He also provides stellar defense in CF to compensate for struggles at the plate. If Kyle Stowers can show more consistency of approach and more power, then this offense could take off. Offseason prospect acquisition OF Owen Caissie has also started to show more consistency, and the power potential is very real.

So how good is this team? Right now the underlying numbers are in line with a .500 winning percentage, so their record is essentially what it should be. But they could be a little better than this, and will be getting a boost from the return of starter Eury Perez and outfielder Griffin Conine from the injured list probably this week. If things continue to go well and the team sticks around .500 or moves beyond, the front office will likely make modest additions at the trade deadline if not sooner, especially to acquire a starter. I would not expect major moves here, but also do not expect the team to sell, despite the obsession of some Marlins fans for acquiring more prospects regardless of how the team is performing. Bendix has been clear on this from day one: the goal is to both develop the system by continuing to add potential impact players to the minors while also trying to compete for a playoff spot in the majors. Fan thinking has not quite caught up to this, so too many have an either/or attitude that does not reflect how the organization sees things. Also, from a baseball culture standpoint, you don’t want to trade away valuable pieces mid-season when you have a chance to make the playoffs. It’s a slap in the face to the major league players, and the Bendix team gets that, which is why the team stood pat last year and stayed in the playoff race well into September.

More reasons to feel encouraged? The minor league system of player acquisition and development has taken huge steps forward under this new regime. At just about every level of the organization, the Marlins have improved in statistical rankings relative to where they were under the previous front office. They also have much greater balance of good players and potential major leaguers on both the hitting and pitching side. In other words, they have a deep system of useful players, some of whom could be good to very good big leaguers. What they lack are high upside players, especially hitters. Their best hitters may not have enough production to put them in the elite category anytime soon. That, along with a lack of power, both at the majors and in the minors, is something the front office recognizes they will need to address.

There has been the typical chirping from Marlins fans on social media about how bad the manager and coaching staff are with the Marlins. Their record suggests a picture that is the opposite of this portrayal. One of the earliest attempts I’ve seen to measure how well a manager makes in-game bullpen and bench decisions suggests that Clayton McCullough has been one of the best managers in baseball at adding “win probability impact” with his decision making. True, this measurement greatly simplifies what a manager does but it also offers some evidence at the very least that much of the fan base is clueless when it comes to assessing decision-making, a point that I did not need a statistical evaluation to make. One of the things this statistical assessment does not include, but the new Marlins regime has excelled at: player development in the majors and the minors. The coaching staff throughout the Marlins system know what they are doing.

in the meantime, let’s enjoy this ride, Marlins fans! It’s close to mid-season and your fighting Fish are in the hunt.


MLB Owners Push for Salary Cap

With echoes of 1994, the baseball owners are once again proposing to cap player salaries. Precedent suggests that this will not be a good outcome for the sport. In 1994, the owners provoked a 232-day work stoppage that cost the league 938 games and cancellation of the postseason and World Series. According to the Los Angeles Times, the total combined financial damage of that fiasco was $1 billion for owners and $350 million for players. But these figures understate the longer-term damage to the sport: fan disillusionment caused per game attendance to plummet by 20% in 1995 and ticket sales to remain severely depressed into 1996. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, it took four full seasons for stadium attendance to recover to pre-strike levels.

With their proposed salary cap, owners are pursuing their interests in profit maximization, especially their calculation that a salary cap and a salary floor are the best routes to increase the market valuation of their franchises. The gap between top spending and bottom spending major league baseball teams is vast: from the top payroll of the LA Dodgers at $398 million to the lowest payroll of the Miami Marlins at $74 million (current Fangraph projections for the 2026 season). The disparity is a cause for concern, as payroll is an important factor that contributes to winning seasons and postseason success. That being said, sports economists who have studied these payroll gaps, starting with the classic work of Andrew Zimbalist Jr., have long concluded that payroll explains only about one-third of team success. The other factors include how well an organization does in “player acquisition (scouting, draft, trades, signings); development (turning prospects into major leaguers as well as continuing to develop major league talent); governance (how free is baseball ops from owner meddling); and finally: luck.” (Ken Rosenthal, The Athletic, May 29, 2026, citing a former major league executive, whose observations track the work of sports economists in the factors that predict winning in baseball).

The complexity of what determines winning outcomes in major league baseball is accentuated by the fact that successful teams depend on not just a talented 26-man roster, but on having talent and depth in 40-man rosters, as well as waves of talent in the minors. No baseball team, not even the Dodgers, can be successful just buying the most expensive free agents. That’s an approach that, by itself, will not work to produce a winning team.

The biggest issue, then, for fans of teams that spend very little, such as the Miami Marlins, is what financial model achieves the best competitive balance outcome. Is it necessary to have a salary cap that requires players to take less money for the sake of better revenue distribution? That appears to be the instinctive reaction of fans of low-to-mid market teams right now, who feel that player salaries are a significant obstacle to their teams having a chance. The problem with salary caps is that they take money from the players as a “solution” for competitive imbalance, when there are better ways to address the problem. Players, after all, are the ones that generate value for the sport. Owners invest their money as capital, but without players producing on the field, there would be no surplus value added to owners’ investments.

Players drive the sport and their opposition to the owners’ push for a salary cap is significant. The MLB Players Association noted that the owners’ proposed salary cap would have cut player compensation by $500 million had it been in effect in 2026, namely because the proposed salary cap and floor figures of $245.3 million and $171.2 million, respectively, include major league player salaries, as well as player benefits and amateur draft and signing bonuses. The owners want to use the cap to rigidly reduce salaries by counting as payroll a wider range of team obligations. A primary goal of the owners is to reduce salary obligations, player benefits and spending on amateur draft picks as a way toward leveling the cost obligations of all teams. The owners of large-revenue teams apparently agreed to a salary cap and floor proposal as a precondition for their willingness to share their local media revenue.

Major league baseball teams exist in radically different revenue ecosystems, especially regarding variations in local media revenue, and the latter contributes the most (by far) to competitive imbalance in the sport. Dan Skidmore-Hess and I wrote a book in 2006, Free Agency and Competitive Balance in Major League Baseball, which argued that the best periods of competitive balance have coincided with periods of lucrative national media deals, which have always been divided equally among the major league teams. The problem has been that local revenues, including local media revenue, have not been distributed equally. Both the owners and the players are now in favor of an equal distribution of local revenues. This could be accomplished without a salary cap, and it would be sufficient to significantly improve competitive balance, provided it is coupled with an enforcement mechanism designed to require small revenue teams to spend their revenue sharing money on player payroll. The players’ proposal attempts to provide stronger incentives for this to happen, without a salary cap.

The fundamental issue with a salary cap is how deceptive it is. On surface appearances, a salary cap levels the playing field by purporting to share revenues equally between players and owners. However, owners have long diverted their revenues into debt and tax shell games to enable them to reduce taxes on their other businesses. IRS tax law allows owners to write off 6.67% of the purchase price of the team every year over a 15-year period. This is in addition to the lavish public subsidies that owners are provided, which they get to pocket as part of their revenue stream. Unless there is a willingness of owners to expand their definition of “revenues” toward a more realistic assessment of earnings year to year, salary caps would most certainly restrict players to a 50-50 distribution of only the revenues that are most visible on the baseball side, without touching the larger revenue schemes of the ownership class.

In short, owners have advantages that are baked into our current political and economic system. Don’t let them peddle these advantages as a willingness to “share” for the betterment of the sport. What is driving the owners in their initial salary cap proposal is a scheme to make the players pay the overwhelming costs for greater “competitive balance,” while focused on the goal of further increasing the market valuation of their teams. At a time when all objective measurements say the sport has been doing very well (attendance is up, viewership is up, fan interest is increasing), the last thing this sport needs is to be held hostage by a group of billionaires with another scheme to consolidate more power and privileges. There are better ways to do competitive balance, without a salary cap.  

The Marlins Rebuild Has Ended

After the trade deadline, the Miami Marlins have a major league roster that is almost identical to the pre-deadline roster. The only major leaguers traded were OF Jesus Sanchez and C Nick Fortes. Reactions from the most sophisticated analysts from Marlins social media accounts were a combination of surprise and mild disappointment that the front office did not do more to exchange relief pitchers, or veteran starters such as Cal Quantrill or even Edward Cabrera and/or Sandy Alcantara, for prospect capital at the deadline.

However, after time had passed, many of us agreed that the overall picture is quite positive and reassuring: the new front office in just a year and a half has built the foundations of a competitive team. The timetable for the Marlins to realistically compete for a playoff spot is 2026, but the front office is rewarding the players and the coaching staff at the major league level in 2025 for the sustained success the club has had over the past two months, when the Fish have been among the best teams in major league baseball.

What often gets overlooked in discussions of rebuilds is the interplay between acquiring enough foundational talent to compete long-term and rewarding the players and coaches on the field when they do start to turn things around. It’s fair to say that the Marlins front office has more “building” to do that will likely involve major trades of veteran talent in the offseason. At the same time, this is no longer a “rebuild” given that the goal will be creating a sustainable playoff caliber team in 2026 and beyond. The vision of the new front office under Peter Bendix was to get to the point where the entire major and minor league system was revamped through a unified player development system of over one hundred new hires that would help the organization identify, acquire and develop young players at all levels of the minors (and majors) via trades, waiver wire pickups, Rule V acquisitions and the annual MLB player draft.

These aspects of the rebuild are fast-advanced, though not complete. Marlins fans that wanted to see a lot of trades at the trade deadline to continue a “rebuild” through consecutive years felt that opportunities may have been lost to add more talent to the system. I certainly felt that more trades were necessary as recently as a few weeks ago, but my attitude shifted as the Marlins kept winning games and series, including nine of the last eleven series played, which included only one tied series and one lost series.

The calculation by the Bendix-led front office was to trade key players only if the returns were high enough to help the Marlins compete in 2026 and beyond. The offers for Edward Cabrera, Sandy Alcantara and even relief pitchers such as Anthony Bender did not meet this criteria. There was another factor that often goes overlooked: the front office hired the new coaching staffs at all levels of the system, including a brand new major league coaching staff entrusted with developing the youngest roster in baseball. When the players and the coaching staff had sustained success on the field, they earned the right to continue the momentum established.

The front office, including Bendix, has used the word “culture” more than any other word when talking about sustained success. Part of what that means is rewarding the players and coaches who have successfully adopted the new player development system and “culture” to win games for a sustained period of time.  Rather than block that process, the front office wants to encourage this development success and to cultivate its further growth.

To me, this is a ratification of my high expectations of this new front office. They have put themselves in a position to build strategically for both the short- and long-term. That means the Marlins are no longer the type of team that sells valuable assets to the big revenue clubs at firesale prices. When you trade with the Marlins now, you have a front office with the evaluation tools to acquire fair value back to the team, and a development system far advanced from its predecessors. For avid and casual fans, the ballpark experience is already enriched. The upcoming Yankee series will be far more entertaining with the Marlins able to field a team that has surged over the past two months, rather than having to watch a shell of a previously good product stumble to the finish line for yet another season. The hope is not 3, 4 or 5 years away—it’s there in front of our eyes right now, waiting to be built up, not torn down.